Analytical review · Interim financial statements for Q2 2026 (as at 30 June 2026)
Bakshi Finance — Family Office | Research Depth: Comprehensive
What this review rests on. Arbe Robotics' annual report on Form 20-F for 2025, filed with the SEC on 27 March 2026 and carrying a clean audit opinion from KPMG Somekh Chaikin; the unaudited condensed interim consolidated financial statements for the period ended 30 June 2026, furnished on 3 September 2026; ten current reports on Form 6-K through 8 September 2026; and the Series A convertible bond prospectus together with the deed of trust annexed to it, filed with the Israel Securities Authority. Market data as at the close of 8 September 2026. Every figure on this page is drawn from one of those documents. Where a figure was computed by us, that is stated explicitly.
Arbe Robotics Ltd. is an Israeli company incorporated in November 2015 that commenced operations in January 2016. Its head office is at 107 HaHashmonaim Street, Tel Aviv-Yafo, and it has two subsidiaries: Arbe Robotics US Inc. (Delaware, 2017) and Shanghai Arbe Technologies Co., Ltd. (China, 2024). The ordinary shares are listed on Nasdaq and on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange under the symbol ARBE, the publicly traded warrants are listed on Nasdaq under ARBEW, and the convertible bonds are listed in Tel Aviv.
The company develops a 4D imaging radar chipset comprising three components: a transmitter chip, a receiver chip, and a dedicated radar processing chip containing a Radar Processing Unit (RPU) alongside general-purpose processing and control cores. The Phoenix radar system built on that chipset reaches 2,304 virtual channels, obtained by combining up to two transmitters (24 channels each) and up to four receivers (12 channels each).
In the private automotive market Arbe operates as a Tier 2 supplier — it sells the chipset to module manufacturers (Tier 1), who build radar systems from it and sell them to vehicle manufacturers (OEMs). The company has no fabrication facility of its own; manufacturing and testing of the chipset are performed by GlobalFoundries, and note 1(d) to the interim statements identifies dependence on that single supplier as an explicit risk factor.
From 2026 the company broadened its sales model: alongside chipsets it began selling complete radar systems from a dedicated production line, primarily for defense, homeland security, perimeter security and what the company terms "physical AI" applications. Its principal reported Tier 1 partners are HiRain in China and Sensrad in Sweden, whose radar systems are based on Arbe's chipset and which serves customers including Watchit, Forterra and Tianyi.
As at 31 December 2025 the company had 145 employees and consultants, nine of them engaged under consulting agreements, with 135 based in Israel. It holds 15 patent families granted in the United States, Europe, Israel, Japan and China. Research and development was partly financed through royalty-bearing grants from the Israel Innovation Authority, which create a royalty obligation of up to 100% of the grant amount and restrictions on transferring the know-how outside Israel.
The last three reported years show a stable expense base and volatile revenue. Revenue in 2025 ($1,026 thousand) was lower than in 2023 ($1,470 thousand), while operating expenses moved within a narrow band of $46.8–48.9 million in each of the three years.
| US$ thousands | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | H1 2025 | H1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,470 | 768 | 1,026 | 314 | 1,164 |
| Cost of revenues | 1,508 | 1,553 | 1,828 | 797 | 1,297 |
| Gross profit (loss) | (38) | (785) | (802) | (483) | (133) |
| Research and development, net | 34,082 | 35,091 | 34,820 | 17,909 | 15,112 |
| Sales and marketing | 5,194 | 5,430 | 5,039 | 2,678 | 2,307 |
| General and administrative | 7,571 | 8,347 | 7,544 | 3,771 | 3,626 |
| Total operating expenses | 46,847 | 48,868 | 47,403 | 24,358 | 21,045 |
| Operating loss | (46,885) | (49,653) | (48,205) | (24,841) | (21,178) |
| Financial income, net | 3,385 | 336 | 1,784 | 865 | 2,662 |
| Net loss | (43,500) | (49,317) | (46,421) | (23,976) | (18,516) |
| Loss per share — US$ | (0.60) | (0.61) | (0.42) | (0.23) | (0.15) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | (18,637) | (18,622) |
Net loss for H1 2026 narrowed by $5,460 thousand against the comparable half. A line-by-line breakdown shows that $5,421 thousand of the change — 99.3% of it — originated outside operating activity: a $3,351 thousand decline in share-based compensation, a $273 thousand decline in warrants to service providers, and a $1,797 thousand increase in net financial income.
The measure unaffected by those items is Adjusted EBITDA, which the company itself reports in note 12 to the interim statements: $(18,622) thousand in H1 2026 against $(18,637) thousand in H1 2025 — no material change.
In its Q1 report management stated that it had implemented cost-reduction measures expected to result in an approximate 15% decrease in ongoing expenses. Reported operating expenses did fall by 13.6% (from $24,358 to $21,045 thousand). Note 10(c) sets out share-based compensation by line item, which allows the non-cash component to be isolated:
| US$ thousands | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating expenses as reported | 24,358 | 21,045 | −13.6% |
| Less share-based compensation within them | (5,481) | (2,191) | — |
| Less warrants to service providers | (364) | (91) | — |
| Cash operating expenses | 18,513 | 18,763 | +1.4% |
Sequentially within 2026 the picture differs: cash operating expenses fell from $9,957 thousand in Q1 to $8,806 thousand in Q2 — a decline of 11.6% — and against the comparable quarter ($8,923 thousand) they are 1.3% lower. According to company management, the full effect of the cost reduction is expected to be reflected in the third quarter of 2026.
The cash operating expense figures were computed by us on the basis of note 10(c) and are not presented as such in the filing.
| US$ thousands | 31.12.2024 | 31.12.2025 | 30.6.2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 13,488 | 4,028 | 5,037 |
| Restricted cash | 280 | 280 | 280 |
| Short-term bank deposits | 10,793 | 40,690 | 36,601 |
| Total cash and deposits | 24,561 | 44,998 | 41,918 |
| Trade receivables | 153 | 571 | 807 |
| Other assets — funds held in escrow | 30,417 | 24,525 | 25,051 |
| Prepaid expenses, derivatives and other receivables | 2,500 | 1,685 | 1,970 |
| Non-current assets | 3,156 | 2,069 | 2,464 |
| Total assets | 60,787 | 73,848 | 72,210 |
| Convertible bonds (current liability) | 30,614 | 24,757 | 24,047 |
| Other current liabilities | 5,792 | 8,159 | 6,281 |
| Long-term liabilities | 1,885 | 1,363 | 1,379 |
| Additional paid-in capital | 275,453 | 338,947 | 358,397 |
| Accumulated deficit | (252,957) | (299,378) | (317,894) |
| Total shareholders' equity | 22,496 | 39,569 | 40,503 |
Total capital raised into paid-in capital since inception stands at $358.4 million, against an accumulated deficit of $317.9 million. Shareholders' equity at the balance sheet date is $40.5 million.
In June 2024 the company issued convertible bonds with a principal amount of NIS 110 million, and in December 2025 it expanded the series by a further NIS 57.6 million through a private placement on the same terms. The conversion price is NIS 9.53 per share, and the interest rate was reduced from 6.5% to 4.35% effective 1 January 2026. The trustee is Mishmeret Trust Company Ltd.
The proceeds of both issuances were placed in an escrow account pledged in favour of the bondholders, with signature rights vested in the trustee alone. The funds are released to the company only upon satisfaction of a condition precedent, which section 7.2 of the deed of trust defines as an aggregate of three cumulative conditions:
| Section | The condition | Position at 8.9.2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2.1 | Winning a tender or contract to supply its products as the sole chip supplier for imaging radar — directly or through one of the international Tier 1 manufacturers — to one of ten vehicle manufacturers named in the deed: Volkswagen, Toyota, BYD, Stellantis, SAIC, Honda, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Renault | No report of satisfaction |
| 7.2.2 | Rolling average of Nasdaq closing prices over 30 consecutive trading days — not less than US$3.10 | US$0.7431 |
| 7.2.2 | Average aggregate trading volume on Nasdaq and Tel Aviv over those 30 days — at least 300,000 shares per day | 5,735,807 (20-day average) |
| 7.2.3 | Nasdaq closing price on the date the documents are presented to the trustee — not less than US$3.10 | US$0.7431 |
The deadline for satisfying the conditions has been extended twice and currently stands at 31 December 2026. Section 7.3.2 requires the company to deliver to the trustee the tender particulars including expected volumes, and section 7.3.10 provides that if the confirmations are not delivered by the deadline, a mandatory full early redemption of principal, accrued interest and linkage differentials will be effected.
The financial covenants in the deed require shareholders' equity of not less than $5 million as at the last day of two consecutive quarters, and cash and deposits of not less than $5 million as at the last day of at least one quarter. At the balance sheet date the company complies with both — equity of $40.5 million and cash and deposits of $41.9 million.
The funds held in escrow (US$25,051 thousand) are a separate balance sheet line and are not included in total cash and deposits (US$41,918 thousand).
Cash and deposits declined from $53.6 million at 31.3.2026 to $41.9 million at 30.6.2026. Net cash used in operating activities for the half was $20,568 thousand, against $17,998 thousand in the comparable half. Changes in working capital for the half totalled $(2,266) thousand — of which $(1,841) thousand arose in "accrued expenses and other payables", which fell from $2,950 to $1,109 thousand — against a positive contribution of $1,231 thousand in the comparable half.
| US$ thousands | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net cash used in operating activities — as reported | (17,998) | (20,568) | (8,637) | (11,931) |
| Of which: changes in working capital | 1,231 | (2,266) | 1,495 | (3,761) |
| Before changes in working capital | (19,229) | (18,302) | (10,132) | (8,170) |
The separation of working capital movements was computed by us from the statement of cash flows and is not presented as such in the filing.
Note 1(e) to the interim statements states: "Based on its current operating plans, the Company believes that its existing cash and cash equivalents together with anticipated cash generated from operations will be sufficient to meet the Company's working capital requirements for at least one year from the date of the issuance of these condensed consolidated financial statements." The statements were issued on 3 September 2026. The auditor's report for 2025 contains no going-concern paragraph.
Note 12 to the interim statements states that the company operates as a single operating and reportable segment and is managed on a consolidated basis, and that the chief operating decision maker is the Chief Executive Officer. The only disaggregation the company provides is by geography and by product type.
| US$ thousands | 2023 | % | 2024 | % | 2025 | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 247 | 16.8% | 224 | 29.2% | 747 | 72.8% |
| United States | 148 | 10.1% | 220 | 28.6% | 204 | 19.9% |
| China (excluding Hong Kong) | 639 | 43.5% | 254 | 33.1% | 6 | 0.6% |
| Hong Kong | 266 | 18.1% | — | — | 16 | 1.5% |
| Germany | 81 | 5.5% | 20 | 2.6% | — | — |
| Israel | 50 | 3.4% | 50 | 6.5% | 53 | 5.2% |
| Other | 39 | 2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | 1,470 | 100% | 768 | 100% | 1,026 | 100% |
China and Hong Kong together accounted for $905 thousand (61.6%) of 2023 revenue, fell to $254 thousand (33.1%) in 2024, and to $22 thousand (2.1%) in 2025.
| US$ thousands | H1 2025 | % | H1 2026 | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | — | — | 464 | 39.9% |
| China (excluding Hong Kong) | — | — | 400 | 34.3% |
| Sweden | 180 | 57.3% | 195 | 16.8% |
| United States | 118 | 37.6% | 105 | 9.0% |
| Hong Kong | 16 | 5.1% | — | — |
| Total revenue | 314 | 100% | 1,164 | 100% |
The $850 thousand increase in the half is fully explained, and more than fully, by two markets that recorded no revenue in the comparable half: Israel (+$464 thousand) and China (+$400 thousand). Sweden and the United States together moved from $298 thousand to $300 thousand.
By product mix in H1 2026: chipsets 74%, professional services 26%.
| Period | Customers above 10% | Shares of total revenue |
|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 | 4 | 37.8% · 34.4% · 16.8% · 9.0% |
| 2025 | 2 | 72.85% · 16.03% |
| 2024 | 4 | 19.5% · 18.4% · 16.9% · 14.5% |
| 2023 | 3 | 38.9% · 18.1% · 12.7% |
From the financial statements, page F-18: "No other customer accounted for 10% or more of revenues in 2025, 2024 or 2023. The 10% customers were different customers in each of 2025, 2024 and 2023."
Remaining performance obligations stood at $290 thousand at 31.12.2024, $257 thousand at 31.12.2025, and $1,000 thousand at 30.6.2026 — unchanged from 31.3.2026.
The only measurable parameter on which the solutions in this market can be compared directly is the number of virtual channels, which determines angular resolution and the rate of false alarms. The picture as presented in Arbe's annual report:
| Participant | Virtual channels | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Arbe — Phoenix | 2,304 | Up to 2 transmitters × 24 channels and up to 4 receivers × 12 channels |
| Mobileye | 1,536 | Initially announced 2,304 (48×48) and subsequently updated to 1,536 (32×48) |
| Forvia (Hella) | 576 | 24×24 based on NXP chips |
| Texas Instruments / NXP | up to 576 | 4Rx×4Tx transceiver; 8Rx×8Tx samples scalable to 24×24 |
| Conventional ADAS radar | 12 | Native resolution of 5 degrees or worse |
Two further Chinese participants are named in the filing without channel figures: Huawei and Calterah.
The company's position, as set out in the annual report, rests on six arguments: the technology itself; competitive cost and power consumption; global coverage; interest from leading industry participants; automotive-grade development and production in joint work with Tier 1 suppliers since 2018; and relationships with multiple Tier 1 suppliers enabling market penetration.
The filing also states two structural features working against the company. First: Mobileye plans to play some of the roles of a Tier 1 supplier, thereby competing with Arbe's own customers. Second, arising from Arbe's position in the chain — as a Tier 2 supplier it does not control the adoption decision; that decision is taken by the vehicle manufacturer, through the Tier 1 supplier.
The industry timetable as the company describes it: mass-production programs for Level 3 and Level 4 consumer vehicles are targeted for 2028–2030, and the decisions on them are being taken in 2026–2027. Solutions that are to be candidates for those programs must pass automotive-grade manufacturing and audit processes with the OEMs and the Tier 1 suppliers.
Arbe is not a company that is assessed on multiples. Annual revenue of about one million dollars against operating expenses of some 47 million is not a basis for computing a multiple — the ratio between them is 46 to one. Anyone who tries to measure it with the tools of an earning company is measuring noise. The questions that can be asked about it are questions of structure, of calendar, and of contractual thresholds.
First: what the revenue line is actually measuring. The filing states explicitly that the 10% customers were different customers in each of 2025, 2024 and 2023. The structural implication is that the revenue is not a recurring base but a sequence of projects, evaluations and engineering services. The same shows in the geography: China and Hong Kong were 61.6% of 2023 revenue and fell to 2.1% in 2025; Sweden rose to 72.8% in 2025 and in H1 2026 is 16.8%. The growth in the latest half is explained entirely by two markets that recorded no revenue a year earlier. The question is not what the growth rate is — it is whether the customers of 2026 will appear again in 2027.
Second: where the line falls between an accounting improvement and a cash improvement. Net loss for the half narrowed by $5.5 million, but 99.3% of the change originated outside operating activity — share-based compensation that has run down, and interest on the cash reserve. The measure unaffected by those items, Adjusted EBITDA, did not move at all: $(18.6) million in both halves. The same pattern repeats in the expense line: the 13.6% decline in operating expenses is almost entirely share-based compensation, and net of it cash expense rose by 1.4%. A reader of the headline alone sees a company cutting costs; a reader of the note sees a cost base that has yet to fall below the prior year.
Third: how to read the cash burn correctly. The reported line shows deterioration — $20.6 million in the half against $18.0 million. But $2.3 million of that movement is working capital, principally the "accrued expenses" line falling from $2.95 to $1.11 million. That is the settlement of a liability accrued in a prior period, not new spending. Net of working capital, the burn for the half was $18.3 million against $19.2 million, and at the quarterly level it fell from $10.1 million to $8.2 million. That distinction reverses the direction, and it is the reason the next report should be read before working capital movements rather than after them.
Fourth: what exactly sits in escrow, and to whom it belongs. The company raised two bond issuances, and the proceeds never reached its treasury. They sit in a pledged escrow account with signature rights vested in the trustee. The December 2025 raise of NIS 57.6 million added debt to the company but no usable cash. The free cash — $41.9 million — came entirely from equity issuances. That distinction changes how the balance sheet reads: total assets of $72.2 million include $25.1 million that cannot be used until a condition is satisfied.
Fifth: the three escrow conditions are cumulative, not alternative. The English summary in the 20-F presents them as a bullet list, which reads naturally as "one of several paths". The deed of trust itself, filed in Hebrew with the Israel Securities Authority, states expressly that the transfer is "conditioned on all three (3) of the following conditions being met", and section 7.2.1 ends with the word "and also". A commercial win, therefore, even if recognised as satisfying the first condition, is not sufficient on its own — the price condition stands separately. The volume condition, by contrast, is currently met by a wide margin.
Sixth: two fixed dates converge into a single quarter. On 13 April 2026 the company received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq for non-compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement, and the first cure period ends on 12 October 2026. The deadline for the escrow conditions is 31 December 2026. The two dates are not independent: the annual report states that a Nasdaq delisting may constitute an event permitting a demand for immediate repayment of the bonds. Until the end of 2026, therefore, the listing question is not solely a question of liquidity.
Seventh: what happens to the balance sheet after the fourth quarter. If the conditions are not satisfied and the mandatory redemption under section 7.3.10 is effected, the escrow funds will be applied to repay the bonds and the company will be required to add interest and linkage differentials from its own resources. The other side of that same event is that from 1 January 2027 the company is left with no financial debt: the deed's restrictions on charges, additional debt and distributions lapse, the covenants fall away, and the link between the Nasdaq listing question and the balance sheet is severed. One event, two opposite meanings.
Eighth: what the 8 September announcement says, and what it does not. It reported that one of the world's largest automotive groups selected a HiRain system based on Arbe's chipset for a Level 3 automated driving program in China, across multiple brands, with series-production deliveries from the fourth quarter of 2027. This is the first time a production program with a date, rather than an evaluation or a tender process, has been reported. What was not disclosed: the manufacturer's identity, the number of brands, unit volumes, contract value, and whether Arbe is a sole supplier. The last three of those are precisely what sections 7.2.1 and 7.3.2 of the deed of trust require.
Ninth: the capital structure and who holds it. The company has no controlling shareholder. The board and management hold 10.02%, and the two largest holders — hedge funds that entered through structured offerings — are each capped at 9.99%. There is no strategic investor, vehicle manufacturer or Tier 1 supplier in the ownership table. In parallel, the share count rose from 77.9 million at the end of 2023 to approximately 127.3 million, with a further 43.5 million dilutive instruments outstanding — 33.8% of the existing capital.
The frame in one line. Arbe is a company in which a substantial part of the value turns on contractual and regulatory tests whose dates are known, rather than on lines in an income statement. The share price itself is an input to both of those tests — to the US$3.10 threshold in the deed of trust and to Nasdaq's dollar requirement alike. An analytical frame that ignores that feature will measure the wrong thing.
| Date | What closes on it | Position at 8.9.2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 | End of Nasdaq's first cure period (180 days from the deficiency notice of 13.4.2026). Ten consecutive trading days at a closing bid of at least US$1.00 are required. Failure leads to consideration of a second period, conditional on meeting the other listing standards and giving notice of an intention to cure | Closing price US$0.7431 |
| 31.12.2026 | Deadline for satisfying the three escrow release conditions. Failure to deliver the confirmations triggers a mandatory full early redemption under section 7.3.10 | No report of satisfaction |
| Q4 2027 | Start of series-production deliveries in the L3 program with HiRain, per the company's announcement of 8.9.2026 | — |
The scenarios below are descriptive, not predictive. They contain no prices, no probabilities, and no ranking between outcomes. Their sole purpose is to organise the conditions that would need to hold for each state to materialise, so that they can be tested against subsequent filings.
Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive.
The six questions below are identical in every company review we publish. They are deliberately open, and do not lead to a single conclusion. Their purpose is to let the reader examine the company along the same six dimensions on which every other company is examined.
1. Revenue in 2025 ($1,026 thousand) was lower than in 2023 ($1,470 thousand), while operating expenses ranged between $46.8 and $48.9 million in each of the three years. The financial statements note that the customers accounting for more than 10% of revenue were different customers in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025.
2. Net loss for H1 2026 narrowed by $5,460 thousand against the comparable half, and 99.3% of the change originated outside operating activity. Adjusted EBITDA was $(18,622) thousand against $(18,637) thousand. Reported operating expenses fell 13.6%, and net of share-based compensation cash expense rose 1.4%; sequentially within 2026 it fell 11.6% between the quarters.
3. The proceeds of both convertible bond issuances were placed in an escrow account pledged in favour of the holders and were not transferred to the company. Their release is conditioned on three cumulative conditions under section 7.2 of the deed of trust, among them a 30-trading-day rolling average price of at least US$3.10. The closing price on 8.9.2026 was US$0.7431. The deadline for satisfying the conditions is 31.12.2026, and failure triggers a mandatory full early redemption.
4. On 8.9.2026 Arbe and HiRain reported that one of the world's largest automotive groups had selected a radar system based on Arbe's chipset for a Level 3 automated driving program in China, across multiple brands, with series-production deliveries from the fourth quarter of 2027. The announcement does not identify the vehicle manufacturer, states no volumes or contract value, and contains no reference to sole-supplier status.
Bakshi Finance operates as a Family Office serving qualified clients only. Mr Yaron Bakshi held a licensed investment advisory licence between 2008 and 2023. As at the date of publication of this document, the firm does not hold an investment advice, investment marketing or portfolio management licence.
This document is intended for research and professional study purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or take any action in securities. Nothing herein substitutes for advice that takes account of the particular circumstances and needs of any individual. Every decision rests with the investor alone.
The data were drawn from official sources: Arbe Robotics' annual report on Form 20-F for 2025 (filed 27.3.2026, KPMG Somekh Chaikin), the interim financial statements as at 30.6.2026 (furnished 3.9.2026), ten current reports on Form 6-K through 8.9.2026, and the Series A convertible bond prospectus together with its annexed deed of trust. Market data as at 8.9.2026. Subsequent filings may change the picture. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This site takes no part in the investment decision. The decision belongs to the client.
The full analytical review of Arbe Robotics (ARBE) for Q2 2026 is available to Bakshi Finance premium clients.
The review comprises 10 sections, the "How to Think About This Company" narrative, a structured scenario framework, and a 6-dimension Analytical Lens.