Bakshi Finance

Booking Holdings Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Norwalk, Connecticut · NASDAQ

BKNG
Growth | Core/Tactical NASDAQ Research Depth · Standard

Company Description

Booking Holdings (BKNG) is the world's largest online travel company by gross bookings [source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1 Business; Competition cites Expedia Group as primary competitor]. The portfolio includes Booking.com (accommodation), Priceline, Agoda (Asia), Rentalcars, KAYAK (metasearch), and OpenTable (restaurants). In FY2025 it reported gross bookings of ~$170B+ and room nights of ~1.1B+ [source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 MD&A]. Investment thesis: strong exposure to the travel consumer + an automated commission-based revenue model (merchant of record + agency) + an FCF machine. Europe ~60% of revenue — a hedge against the US consumer. Key risk: dependence on Google performance marketing, as Google expands its own Google Travel offering [source: Google Travel product launches 2023-2025 per Google press releases; BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A discusses this risk].
Sector · Sub-sectorConsumer Cyclical · Travel Services
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
HeadquartersNorwalk, Connecticut
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Founded1997 (Priceline) / 2018 (rebranded Booking Holdings)
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
CEOMr. Glenn D. Fogel
[BKNG DEF 14A filed 2025-04-22 · accession 0001308179-25-000476]
ChairmanN/A
[BKNG DEF 14A filed 2025-04-22 · accession 0001308179-25-000476]
Employees~23,571
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Market Cap$152.0B
[snapshot 2026-04-17]
Revenue FY2025$26.9B
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Net Income$5.4B
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Shares Outstanding792M
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Market Cap
$152.0B
792M | P/E 28.99
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009] · [yfinance snapshot 2026-04-17]
Revenue FY2025
$26.9B
+13.4% Y/Y
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Net Income
$5.4B
EPS $6.62 | -8.1% Y/Y
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Gross Margin
N/A
Op Margin 34.5% · Gross Margin N/A (marketplace model)
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
FCF
$9.1B
FCF Yield (snapshot) 5.98%
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009] · snapshot 2026-04-17
Net Debt
$2.1B Net Debt
Debt $19B | Cash $17B
[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Closing Price
$192.01
As of 2026-04-17
[yfinance snapshot 2026-04-17]
1

Financial Performance — 5 Years

Revenue ($M)
Last 5 fiscal years
Operating Income & Margin
Multi-year trend
EBITDA & Free Cash Flow
5-year trend
Revenue Breakdown
Latest fiscal year
Margin Profile — 5 Years
Gross / Operating / Net Margin %
Capital Structure
Cash, Debt, Net Debt | 5 Years
2

Financial Statements

ItemFY-4FY-3FY-2FY-1FY (latest)Source
Revenue$0.0M$17.1B$21.4B$23.7B$26.9B[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Gross ProfitNoneNoneNoneNoneNone[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Operating Income$0.0M$5.1B$5.8B$7.6B$9.3B[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Operating Margin %0.0%29.9%27.3%31.8%34.5%[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
EBITDA$0.0M$5.9B$7.5B$8.9B$11.1B[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
Net Income$0.0M$3.1B$4.3B$5.9B$5.4B[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
EPS ($)$1.13$3.05$4.70$6.91$6.62[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
FCF$0.0M$6.2B$7.0B$7.9B$9.1B[BKNG 10-K filed 2026-02-18 · accession 0001075531-26-000009]
3

Economic Moat

Moat Sources
[source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1] Network effect — 29M+ listings, 2M+ hotels, billions in annual transactions★★★★☆
[source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1 Competition] Largest online travel platform by gross bookings (vs Expedia, Airbnb)★★★★☆
[source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1 Brand] Booking.com #1 travel booking app by global downloads (per Sensor Tower 2025)★★★★☆
[source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1] Geographic diversification — Europe 60%, US 20%, Asia 15%, RoW 5%★★★★☆
[source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1] AI/ML matching infrastructure — personalization moat★★★★☆
4

Valuation Multiples

MultipleCompany5Y Self-AverageSpread vs 5Y Avg
P/E (TTM) [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]29.0x21.7x (5Y)+33.8%
P/E (Fwd) [yfinance forward consensus]15.4xN/AN/A
EV/EBITDA [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]15.3x15.9x (5Y)-4.0%
P/S [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]5.7x5.8x (5Y)-3.4%
P/B [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]-27.4x27.4x (5Y)N/M
Div Yield [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]82.00%0.36% (5Y)+81.64pp
FCF Yield (snapshot) [computed · 2026-04-18]5.98%6.00% (5Y)-0.3%
5Y statistical averages computed from yfinance annual data (annual income_stmt × balance_sheet × cash_flow + price snapshots at FY-end). Source: lib/compute_5y_multiples.py · Refresh: 2026-04-18
5

How to Think About This Company

A full How to Think About This Company analysis for BKNG — covering the essence of the business, key variables, potential analytical pitfalls, and what distinguishes professional thinking from noise — is provided as part of the Family Office content.

The difference between surface-level analysis and professional thinking often lies in the variables that are not immediately visible.

7

Risks & Items Under Watch

Key Risks
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] Google performance marketing dependence — ~60% of marketing spend
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] EU Digital Markets Act — platform unbundling requirements
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] FX exposure — 60% Europe revenue
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] Travel sector cyclicality — recession sensitive
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] Airbnb + Google Travel disintermediation risk
[WARN][source: BKNG 10-K FY2025 Item 1A] Connected Trip strategy execution (flights + cars + activities bundling)
Items Under Watch
[Strength] Network effect — 29M+ listings, 2M+ hotels, billions in annual transactions
[Strength] Largest online travel platform by gross bookings (vs Expedia, Airbnb)
[Strength] Booking.com #1 travel booking app by global downloads (per Sensor Tower 2025)
[Strength] Geographic diversification — Europe 60%, US 20%, Asia 15%, RoW 5%
[Strength] AI/ML matching infrastructure — personalization moat
[Bull Scenario Condition] Connected Trip scales + AI personalization + Europe reopens fully + margin expansion
8

Scenario Framework

The framework below describes which conditions need to hold in each scenario — not a price forecast.

Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive. They outline possible conditions, not expected outcomes. No probability is assigned to any scenario, no preferred direction is stated, and no expectation is implied as to which one will materialize.

Bull Case
[Scenario — Bakshi Finance internal assumption] Connected Trip scales + AI personalization + Europe reopens fully + margin expansion [source: Bakshi scenario model V2.7]
Base Case
[Scenario — Bakshi Finance internal assumption] Gross bookings +8-10% Y/Y, op margin ~32%, buybacks compound [source: Bakshi scenario model V2.7]
Bear Case
[Scenario — Bakshi Finance internal assumption] EU DMA pressures margins + Google Travel disintermediates + recession [source: Bakshi scenario model V2.7]
The framework describes conditions, not forecasts. It contains no preferred direction, no probability assessment, and no price targets.
10

Analytical Lens — The Questions We Ask

In professional company analysis, the question is not "is this good," but rather "from which angles must the company be examined so that the essential is not missed." Every analysis at Bakshi Finance passes through six lenses. The text below is not an evaluation — it is the mapping of the questions this analysis is meant to answer.

The analysis is based on an internal multi-factor analytical framework used in professional portfolio management. The framework maps the questions; the answers appear woven through the analysis above.

What the lens is not: there is no rating, no score, no comparison between this company and another, and no preference. The same six questions are asked of every company on the site — what differs is the answers, not the tool.

This framework is intended to structure analysis, not to produce an investment conclusion.

Growth
How is the company growing? Is growth driven by volume, price, or mix? Is it stable across cycles?
Profitability
How do margins behave over time? How much of accounting profit actually converts to free cash flow?
Leverage
What is the capital structure? With what flexibility will the company handle a downturn or higher financing costs?
Competitive Position
What protects its revenues from erosion? How long is that protection likely to hold?
Management Quality
How does management allocate capital? What is its track record on strategic decisions?
Business Complexity / Risk
Where would a simplistic analysis go wrong? What is exposed to regulation, cyclicality, or technological change?

Key Observations

This summary is not a recommendation. It is a factual list of what the analysis identified. The decision — belongs to the client.

Disclosure — Family Office Format

Bakshi Finance operates as a Family Office serving qualified investors only. Mr. Yaron Bakshi held a licensed investment advisor license between 2008 and 2023. As of the publication date of this document, the firm does not hold a license for investment advice, investment marketing, or portfolio management. This document is intended for research and professional study purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or take any action with respect to any security. Nothing herein is a substitute for advice that takes into account the data and needs of any individual person. Every decision — is the sole responsibility of the investor.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The materials reflect publicly available data as of the dates indicated and may become outdated without notice.