Analytical review · Report for the quarter ended June 28, 2026 (Q2 2026)
Bakshi Finance — Family Office | Research Depth: Comprehensive
What this review is based on. Lockheed Martin's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 28, 2026, filed July 23, 2026; the earnings releases for the last four quarters (October 2025 to July 2026); the annual report on Form 10-K for 2025; and Form 8-K filings on credit facilities, a pension obligation transfer and the annual meeting results. Market data: closing price on October 9, 2026, and the Bank of Israel representative dollar rate for the same day.
Lockheed Martin Corporation is the largest U.S. defense contractor by sales. It is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, and at the end of 2025 employed about 123,000 people, including about 72,000 engineers, scientists and IT professionals. 93% of the workforce is in the U.S.
The company operates in four segments. Aeronautics — the F-35 fighter, the F-16, the F-22 and the C-130J airlifter. Missiles and Fire Control — PAC-3 (Patriot) and THAAD interceptors, JASSM and LRASM missiles, and PrSM. Rotary and Mission Systems — Sikorsky helicopters (Black Hawk, Seahawk, CH-53K), command and control systems, and Aegis. Space — submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the NGI interceptor, missile-warning satellites and NASA's Orion spacecraft.
The U.S. Government is the main customer: 70% of sales in the first half of 2026, including 61% from the Department of Defense (now also called the Department of War). 30% came from international customers, including sales through the U.S. Government. The F-35 program alone is about 28% of sales.
Two terms are needed to read Lockheed's reports. Segment operating profit is the profit of the four segments before corporate items, and it is the measure management guides on. A reach-forward loss is recorded when the company estimates that a fixed-price contract will cost more than its price: the entire future loss is booked immediately, in the quarter it becomes evident, even though the cash goes out in later years.
In the April–June 2026 quarter, sales rose 11% to $20,063 million and segment operating profit rose to $2,162 million, from $571 million a year earlier. The jump is explained mainly by the base: Q2 2025 included reach-forward losses of $1,615 million — $950 million on a classified Aeronautics program, $570 million on the Canadian Maritime Helicopter Program (CMHP) and $95 million on the Turkish Utility Helicopter Program (TUHP). Adding those losses back to the prior-year quarter, segment profit this quarter is similar ($2,162 million versus $2,186 million).
Net earnings in the quarter were $1,836 million, or $7.94 per share, versus $1.46. The effective tax rate fell to 15.7% from 18.0%. No shares were repurchased in the quarter.
In July the company raised its 2026 sales guidance to $79.75–81.75 billion, growth of about 8%, and segment operating profit to $8.5–8.7 billion, an increase of about 28%. The base matters here too: 2025 segment profit without the program losses was $8,358 million, and against that the guidance is 2% to 4% higher. Free cash flow guidance rose to $7.0–7.2 billion, while cash-from-operations guidance stayed around $9.3 billion and capital expenditure guidance fell from $2.5–2.8 to $2.0–2.4 billion.
| $ millions | Q1-25 | Q2-25 | Q3-25 | Q4-25 | Q1-26 | Q2-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 17,963 | 18,155 | 18,609 | 20,321 | 18,021 | 20,063 |
| Segment operating profit | 2,085 | 571 | 2,029 | 2,058 | 1,823 | 2,162 |
| Net earnings | 1,712 | 342 | 1,619 | 1,344 | 1,488 | 1,836 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 7.28 | 1.46 | 6.95 | 5.80 | 6.44 | 7.94 |
| Free cash flow | 955 | −150 | 3,347 | 2,756 | −291 | 2,917 |
The company closes its quarters on the last Sunday of the quarter. Q1 2026 had 12 weeks (13 in 2025), and Q4 2026 will have 14 weeks.
On June 28, 2026 the company held $3,791 million of cash against $21.7 billion of debt (principal). Net debt was about $17.9 billion, roughly 1.65 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA. There were no borrowings under the credit facilities. In August 2026 the company entered into a new $2.25 billion 364-day credit facility and extended its $3 billion five-year facility to 2031. Neither contains a financial maintenance covenant.
Shareholders' equity is small relative to the company's size — $8,768 million. In 2021–2025 the company repurchased $24.7 billion of stock, and diluted shares fell from 277 to 231 million. Actuarial pension losses also reduce equity by $7.5 billion. Equity rose by $2 billion in the first half because no shares were repurchased. Remaining repurchase authorization: $8.3 billion. In its annual report the company notes that dividends and repurchases "may also be impacted by the implementation of presidential executive orders".
Working capital: contract assets — work performed but not yet billed — rose by $3.0 billion in the first half to $16.0 billion, which the company attributes mainly to the F-35 program and missiles. Contract assets also rose in the first half of 2025, by $2.2 billion, so this year's increase is about $0.9 billion above the seasonal pattern. Customer advances stood at $12.2 billion (+$0.7 billion). Inventories include $1.9 billion of costs incurred ahead of anticipated contracts ($1.5 billion at the end of 2025), mainly on classified programs, the F-35, the F-16 and Sikorsky; if those awards slip, the costs may not be recovered.
Other commitments: in June 2026 the company guaranteed borrowings of ULA, its launch joint venture with Boeing, up to $500 million, and stated that both partners plan to provide additional financial support. In July it signed an agreement to acquire Ultra Maritime, an undersea warfare systems company, for $3.45 billion, funded with cash and additional financing. Closing, according to the company, is in Q4 2026, subject to approvals.
Pension: in December 2025 the company contributed $860 million to its pension plans, a contribution which, per its release, fulfils the 2026 obligation, and transferred $943 million of obligations to insurers. Following the 2025 tax law, the company is not subject to the corporate alternative minimum tax this year, and its 2026 federal tax payments are lower.
| Segment, $ millions | Sales Q2-25 | Sales Q2-26 | Change | Profit Q2-26 | Margin | Backlog 6/28/2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics | 7,420 | 8,112 | +9% | 760 | 9.4% | 54,356 |
| Missiles and Fire Control | 3,433 | 4,101 | +19% | 594 | 14.5% | 87,882 |
| Rotary and Mission Systems | 3,995 | 4,354 | +9% | 437 | 10.0% | 48,454 |
| Space | 3,307 | 3,496 | +6% | 371 | 10.6% | 39,724 |
| Total | 18,155 | 20,063 | +11% | 2,162 | 10.8% | 230,416 |
Missiles and Fire Control is the fastest-growing segment: +19% in sales in the quarter, driven by production ramps on PAC-3 and THAAD (+$560 million) and PrSM (+$100 million). In early 2026 the company signed multi-year munitions framework agreements with the Department of Defense, which management says are intended to allow production rates to rise 3 to 4 times. In Q2 a multi-year THAAD contract of $35 billion was signed, still as an undefinitized contract action (UCA) whose final terms have not been set. The segment's backlog nearly doubled, from $46.7 to $87.9 billion.
Aeronautics: sales rose 9%, mainly from F-35 production. Deliveries fell at the same time: 51 aircraft in the first half, versus 97 in the prior-year period. The report does not state the reason. The F-35 backlog fell from 368 to 317 aircraft.
Profit booking rate adjustments: when the company updates a contract's cost estimate, the difference is booked in profit immediately. In Q2, net adjustments added $375 million to segment profit (17% of it), of which $190 million was in Missiles. Without the adjustments, the Missiles segment margin in the quarter was about 9.9%, and Aeronautics about 8.6%. The first half also included unfavorable adjustments: F-16 ($125 million), C-130 ($95 million), CH-53K ($95 million) and Seahawk ($80 million).
According to the company, about 30% of the current backlog will be recognized as sales over the next 12 months and about 50% over the next 24 months. For the December 2025 backlog the ratios were 37% and 60%. In dollars, the 24-month portion is nearly identical at both dates (about $115 billion versus about $116 billion); most of the addition to backlog extends into later years.
In several of its core programs Lockheed is the sole supplier: the F-35 is the fifth-generation fighter the West exports, with a U.S. program of record of 2,456 aircraft, seven partner countries and 12 additional foreign military sales customers. PAC-3 and THAAD interceptors, and the U.S. Navy's strategic submarine-launched missiles, are produced by Lockheed. In long-running programs of this kind, switching suppliers takes years.
Demand: the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act authorized $901 billion; the 2025 tax law added more than $150 billion of defense funding through 2029. The FY2027 budget request, per the report, is $1.5 trillion, including $760 billion for procurement and modernization — subject to Congressional approval. International sales rose 19.5% in the quarter, and European sales 34%.
What the reports show on the other side: market leadership does not guarantee profitability on every contract. In 2024 and 2025 the company recorded reach-forward losses of $1.97 and $1.62 billion, mostly on fixed-price development programs it won competitively. In 2025 the company was not selected in the Air Force's next-generation air dominance (NGAD) competition and wrote off related assets. Its main customer also sets contract terms, and per the report it is shifting more risk to contractors.
At Lockheed, the question is not whether there is demand, but how much of it reaches shareholders. Backlog is at a record, the budget is at a record, and sales are growing. What decides the outcome is the gap between the contract price and the actual cost — and that gap moves by hundreds of millions of dollars in single quarters.
A comparison against a distorted base. In Q2 2025, $1.6 billion of losses were booked at once. So every comparison with 2025 — quarter, half or year — looks like a jump. The 2026 segment-profit guidance is 28% above reported 2025, and about 2%–4% above 2025 without the losses. Both numbers are correct; they answer different questions.
Three layers in earnings. Part of segment profit comes from estimate updates on existing contracts — 17% in the latest quarter. Part of operating profit comes from recovering pension costs through contract pricing — about $1.7 billion a year, per guidance. The third layer is reach-forward losses, booked in a single quarter. Anyone analyzing the company needs to separate the three.
The classified programs are the big unknown. Two secret programs, one in Aeronautics and one in Missiles, have accumulated losses of about $1.8 and $1.5 billion. Both are fixed-price development with fixed-price options for later phases. The company states explicitly that further losses are possible, and the programs cannot be examined from outside.
The F-35 is at an unusual stage. Program sales are rising, because revenue is recognized on costs incurred. Deliveries, however, fell almost by half in the first half, and contract assets rose by $3 billion. When aircraft are built but not delivered, cash is tied up on the balance sheet. The report also notes that the government is considering progress payments, rather than milestone-based payments, as the baseline for fixed-price contracts. What happens to deliveries and contract assets in the second half will feed directly into cash flow.
The new backlog is long-dated. The jump in backlog came mainly from the THAAD contract, whose final terms have not yet been set and which spans several years. It extends the visibility of the business but changes little in the next 24 months. The margin at which the contract is priced will also determine whether the sales addition is a profit addition.
Cash flow has exceeded earnings over time. In 2021–2025 cumulative free cash flow was $32.3 billion against net earnings of $29.3 billion. Stock compensation is negligible (about half a percent of sales), and depreciation is close to capital spending. This year cash flow is helped by three factors: lower tax, no pension contribution (brought forward to December), and lower capital expenditure guidance. Per the full-year guidance, free cash flow in the second half of 2026 would total $4.4–4.6 billion, versus $6.1 billion in the second half of 2025 (which included an $860 million pension contribution).
Capital allocation has changed. Over the past decade the company returned more than its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. In the first half of 2026 no shares were repurchased, and the company cites executive orders as a possible factor. At the same time it is buying a company for $3.45 billion and investing in production capacity. Whether this shift is temporary or permanent is one of the open questions.
The government is customer, financier and regulator. It sets the budget, the payment terms, the contract type, and the rules on buybacks. Each of these can change the outcome for shareholders without any change in demand.
The framework is meant to organize the questions. It does not decide and does not take part in the decision — the decision belongs to the reader.
This framework is intended to structure analysis, not to produce an investment conclusion.
| # | Item | Latest reading |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | New reach-forward losses | None in 2026 so far; $1.62 billion in 2025 |
| 2 | F-35 deliveries | 19 in Q2; 51 in the first half |
| 3 | Contract assets | $16.0 billion (+$3.0 billion year to date) |
| 4 | Net profit booking rate adjustments | $375 million in Q2 (17% of segment profit) |
| 5 | Free cash flow and capital expenditure guidance | $7.0–7.2 and $2.0–2.4 billion |
| 6 | Final pricing of the THAAD contract | Not yet set |
| 7 | Share repurchases | Zero in the first half; $8.3 billion authorization remaining |
| 8 | Closing and financing of the Ultra Maritime acquisition | Per the company, Q4 2026 |
The scenarios below are descriptive, not predictive. They contain no prices, no probabilities, and do not rank outcomes. Their only purpose is to organize the conditions that would need to hold for each state to materialize, so they can be checked against future filings.
Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive.
The following six questions are the same in every company review we publish. They are deliberately open and do not lead to a single conclusion. Their role is to let the reader examine the company along the same six dimensions as any other company.
1. In the April–June 2026 quarter, Lockheed Martin reported sales of $20,063 million (+11%) and segment operating profit of $2,162 million, versus $571 million in the prior-year quarter, which included program losses of $1,615 million.
2. According to company management, 2026 segment operating profit will total $8.5–8.7 billion. Segment profit in 2025 was $6,743 million, and $8,358 million without the program losses.
3. Backlog stood at $230.4 billion on June 28, 2026, up $36.8 billion year to date, mainly due to a THAAD contract whose final terms have not yet been set. Per the company, about 30% of backlog will be recognized over the next 12 months.
4. In the first half of 2026, 51 F-35 aircraft were delivered (97 in the prior-year period), contract assets rose by $3.0 billion, and free cash flow totalled $2,626 million. The company did not repurchase shares in the period.
Bakshi Finance operates as a Family Office for qualified clients only. Mr. Yaron Bakshi held a licensed investment adviser qualification in Israel during 2008–2023. As of the publication date of this document, the firm does not hold an investment advice, investment marketing or portfolio management licence.
This document is intended for research and professional study purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or carry out any transaction in securities. Nothing herein substitutes for advice that takes into account the data and needs of each person. Every decision is the sole responsibility of the investor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data were drawn from official sources: the quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 28, 2026 (July 23, 2026), the earnings releases for Q3 and Q4 2025 and Q1 and Q2 2026, the annual report on Form 10-K for 2025 (January 29, 2026), and the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Filings published after this date are not included.
The full analytical review of Lockheed Martin (LMT) for the quarter ended June 2026 is available to Bakshi Finance premium clients.
The review includes a 10-section analysis, "How to Think About This Company" paragraphs, a structured scenario framework, and a six-dimension Analytical Lens.