Bakshi Finance

Microsoft Corporation

Technology · Redmond, Washington · NASDAQ

MSFT
Value | Core/Tactical NASDAQ Research Depth · Standard

Company Description

Microsoft Corporation is one of the three dominant global technology platforms, specializing in enterprise software, cloud services, AI, and devices. The company operates in 3 main segments per FY2025 reporting: Productivity and Business Processes (42.9% of revenue — $120.8B, including Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics), Intelligent Cloud (37.7% — $106.3B, growth engine Azure crossing $75B with +34% Y/Y), and More Personal Computing (19.4% — $54.6B, including Windows OEM, Gaming/Xbox, Search). Microsoft stands out due to a combined moat of switching costs in enterprises (400M+ M365 Commercial seats), the Azure platform competing with AWS, and an exclusive partnership with OpenAI. CapEx of $64.6B in FY25 (+45% Y/Y) reflects a massive strategic bet on AI infrastructure, slightly less than GOOGL ($91B) but more than META ($72B), with relatively moderate capital return of $42.5B (41.7% of net income — the lowest among megacaps).
Sector · Sub-sectorTechnology · Software — Infrastructure
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
HeadquartersRedmond, Washington
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Founded1975
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
CEOSatya Nadella
[MSFT DEF 14A filed 2025-10-21 · accession 0001193125-25-245150]
ChairmanJohn W. Thompson
[MSFT DEF 14A filed 2025-10-21 · accession 0001193125-25-245150]
Employees~228,000
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Market Cap$3.19T
[snapshot 2026-04-17]
FY25 Revenue$281.7B
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Net Income$101.8B
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Shares Outstanding7,425M
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Market Cap
$3.19T
7,425M | P/E 26.84
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235] · [yfinance snapshot 2026-04-17]
FY25 Revenue
$281.7B
+14.9% Y/Y
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Net Income
$101.8B
EPS $13.64 | +15.5% Y/Y
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Gross Margin
69.0%
Op Margin 45.6%
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
FCF
$71.6B
FCF Yield (snapshot) 2.25%
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235] · snapshot 2026-04-17
Net Cash
$54.4B Net Cash
Debt $40B | Cash $95B
[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Closing Price
$428.70
As of 2026-04-17
[yfinance snapshot 2026-04-17]
1

Financial Performance — 5 Years

Revenue ($M)
Last 5 fiscal years
Operating Income & Margin
Multi-year trend
EBITDA & Free Cash Flow
5-year trend
Revenue Breakdown
Latest fiscal year
Profitability Margins — 5 Years
Gross / Operating / Net Margin %
Capital Structure
Cash, Debt, Net Debt | 5 years
2

Financial Statements

ItemFY-4FY-3FY-2FY-1FY (Latest)Source
Revenue$168.1B$198.3B$211.9B$245.1B$281.7B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Gross Profit$115.9B$135.6B$146.1B$171.0B$194.4B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Operating Income$69.9B$83.4B$88.5B$109.4B$128.5B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Operating Margin %41.6%42.1%41.8%44.6%45.6%[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
EBITDA$81.0B$95.7B$101.0B$131.7B$162.6B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
Net Income$61.3B$72.7B$72.4B$88.1B$101.8B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
EPS ($)$8.05$9.65$9.68$11.80$13.64[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
FCF$56.1B$65.1B$59.5B$74.1B$71.6B[MSFT 10-K filed 2025-07-30 · accession 0000950170-25-100235]
3

Economic Moat

Moat Sources
Office 365/Microsoft 365 suite — deeply embedded in 400M+ commercial seats worldwide, switching cost to Google Workspace is substantial.★★★★☆
Azure — second-largest cloud platform (25%+ IaaS market share), hyperscaler economics, AI partnership with OpenAI.★★★★☆
Windows — installed base 1.4B+ monthly active devices, near-monopoly in enterprise PC OS. [source: 10-K FY2025 Item 1 + StatCounter 2025]★★★★☆
[Fact — Azure revenue >$75B FY25 +34%] Azure AI services revenue accelerating to >$10B annualized run-rate by FY26.★★★★☆
LinkedIn — dominant professional network, 1B+ members, high switching cost for recruiters and professionals. [source: LinkedIn about page 2025]★★★★☆
4

Valuation Multiples

MultipleCompany5Y Self AverageDelta vs 5Y Avg
P/E (TTM) [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]26.8x34.0x (4Y)-21.1%
P/E (Fwd) [yfinance forward consensus]22.7xN/AN/A
EV/EBITDA [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]18.0x22.5x (4Y)-20.0%
P/S [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]10.4x12.1x (4Y)-13.6%
P/B [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]8.2x11.7x (4Y)-30.5%
Div Yield [yfinance snapshot · 5Y computed 2026-04-18]0.87%0.76% (4Y)+0.11pp
FCF Yield (snapshot) [computed · 2026-04-18]2.25%2.48% (4Y)-9.3%
5Y statistical averages computed from yfinance annual data (annual income_stmt × balance_sheet × cash_flow + price snapshots at FY-end). Source: lib/compute_5y_multiples.py · Refresh: 2026-04-18
5

How to Think About This Company

A full How to Think About This Company analysis for MSFT — including examination of the essence, key variables, potential analytical pitfalls, and what distinguishes professional thinking from noise — is available within the Family Office content.

The difference between surface-level analysis and professional thinking often lies in the variables that are not immediately visible.

7

Risks & Items Under Watch

Key Risks
[WARN]Cybersecurity incidents — Microsoft is repeatedly targeted; 2024 Chinese state-actor breach (Storm-0558) and 2024 Midnight Blizzard incidents raised concerns
[WARN]Antitrust — EU and UK CMA scrutiny on Teams bundling, Activision acquisition, cloud licensing
[WARN]China/Russia revenue risk — export controls, enterprise pullback
[WARN]Rapid AI investment requires sustained CapEx — FY25 CapEx $64.6B (+45% YoY); any slowdown in AI demand materially impacts ROIC
[WARN]Cloud competition — AWS and Google Cloud continue to invest aggressively; pricing pressure on Azure
[WARN]OpenAI partnership dependency — terms, governance, competitive dynamics
Items Under Watch
[Q1-Q2/2026] — If Azure continues to grow 30%+ Y/Y (per company guidance), the AI-driven cloud thesis remains intact.
[H1/2026] — Conditional on Copilot M365 adoption crossing the 20% base rate, incremental ARR contribution becomes material.
[FY2026] — Sovereign cloud expansion in Europe/India/Middle East — a variable to monitor for Azure growth.
[2026-2027] — Global AI regulation may create advantages for hyperscalers with compliance infrastructure — to be observed.
[2027] — OpenAI GPT-5 launch — if materially differentiated from GPT-4, the Microsoft exclusive arrangement gains relevance.
[Ongoing] — Activision game release cadence (Call of Duty annual, Diablo, WoW expansions) is a Gaming revenue variable.
8

Scenario Framework

The framework below describes what conditions need to hold in each scenario — not a price forecast.

Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive. They outline possible conditions, not expected outcomes. These scenarios contain no probability assessment, no preferred direction, and no expectation as to which will materialize.

Bull Case
[Conditions — Bakshi Finance internal framing] If Azure +34% Y/Y persists, Copilot enterprise adoption broadens, and the OpenAI partnership remains monetized, the higher-multiple regime conditions hold. [source: Bakshi scenario framework V2.7]
Base Case
[Conditions — Bakshi Finance internal framing] If Azure sustains 25%+ growth, CapEx of $64.6B generates ROIC above WACC, and operating margin stays at 45%+, the current multiple regime conditions hold. [source: Bakshi scenario framework V2.7]
Bear Case
[Conditions — Bakshi Finance internal framing] If Azure decelerates toward 15%, CapEx ROIC falls below 10%, and an FTC-mandated Activision divestiture materializes, multiple compression conditions hold. [source: Bakshi scenario framework V2.7]
The framework describes conditions, not forecasts. There is no preferred direction, probability assessment, or price target in this framework.
10

Analytical Lens — The Questions We Ask

In professional company analysis, the question is not "is this good," but rather "from which angles must the company be examined so as not to miss what matters." Every analysis at Bakshi Finance passes through six lenses. The text below is not an assessment — it is the mapping of the questions this analysis is meant to answer.

The analysis is based on an internal multi-factor analytical framework used in professional portfolio management. The framework maps the questions; the answers appear woven through the analysis above.

What the lens is not: there is no rating, no score, no comparison between this company and another, and no preference. The same six questions are asked of every company on this site — the variation is in the answers, not in the tool.

This framework is intended to structure analysis, not to produce an investment conclusion.

G
Growth
How is the company growing? Does growth come from volume, price, or mix? Is it stable across cycles?
P
Profitability
How do margins behave over time? How much of accounting earnings actually converts to free cash flow?
L
Leverage
What is the capital structure? With what flexibility will the company face a downturn or higher financing costs?
C
Competitive Position
What protects its revenues from erosion? How long is that protection expected to hold?
M
Management Quality
How does management allocate capital? What is its track record on strategic decisions?
R
Business Complexity / Risk
Where would simplistic analysis fail? What is exposed to regulation, cyclicality, or technological shifts?

Key Observations

This summary is not a recommendation. It is a factual list of what the analysis identified. The decision — belongs to the client.

Disclosure — Family Office Format

Bakshi Finance operates in a Family Office format for qualified clients only. Mr. Yaron Bakshi held a licensed investment advisor license from 2008 to 2023. As of the publication date of this document, the company does not hold an investment advisory, investment marketing, or portfolio management license. This document is intended for research and professional learning purposes only.

Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or take any action with respect to securities. Nothing herein is a substitute for advice that takes into account the data and needs of any specific person. Every decision — is the sole responsibility of the investor.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance.