Analytical review · Report for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2 2026)
Bakshi Finance — Family Office | Research Depth: Comprehensive
What this review is based on. T-Mobile's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 23, 2026; the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q; the Form 10-K for 2025; the earnings releases and investor factbooks from February to July 2026; the Capital Markets Day Update of February 11, 2026; and Form 8-K filings on management appointments. Market data: closing price on October 9, 2026, and the Bank of Israel representative dollar rate for the same day.
T-Mobile US is the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States by number of customers. It sells postpaid and prepaid wireless service under the T-Mobile, Metro and Mint brands, and offers fixed-wireless home internet over its 5G network. In 2025–2026 it also entered fiber broadband through joint ventures in which it owns 50%. At the end of 2025 it had about 75,000 employees; it is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Revenues for the 12 months ended June 2026 were $92.2 billion, of which $74.8 billion were service revenues. In 2026 the company moved to reporting accounts rather than customers: at the end of June it had 34.7 million postpaid accounts, with average revenue per account of $152.91 per month.
The controlling shareholder is Deutsche Telekom, with 54.3% of the shares and 55.2% of the voting power. Srini Gopalan has been CEO since November 2025. In September 2026 the company announced that Jessica Uhl, former CFO of Shell, will succeed Peter Osvaldik as CFO in February 2027.
In the April–June 2026 quarter, service revenues rose 8.9% to $18,983 million. Postpaid revenues rose 12.6%, while prepaid revenues fell 6.4% and wholesale revenues fell 8.4%. Core Adjusted EBITDA, the measure management uses, rose 11.7% to $9,537 million. Net income rose only 0.5% to $3,239 million, and EPS rose 5.3% thanks to a lower share count.
What explains the gap between EBITDA and net income: depreciation and amortization rose 14% in the first half, net interest expense rose 13%, the fiber joint ventures recorded losses, and a large share of expenses is classified as "special items" and excluded from EBITDA. Over the last 12 months, $2.4 billion was excluded this way before tax: UScellular merger costs ($804 million), network restructuring ($221 million), impairment ($278 million), legal expenses ($84 million), and $1,013 million under "Other, net", which includes severance and store closures. "Other, net" has been excluded in every quarter since the start of 2024.
Over the last 12 months, Core Adjusted EBITDA rose 9.0% while net income fell 13.5% ($10,560 million, versus $12,215 million a year earlier). The prior-year quarter included a one-time after-tax gain of $113 million from a spectrum sale.
| $ millions | Q1-25 | Q2-25 | Q3-25 | Q4-25 | Q1-26 | Q2-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Service revenues | 16,925 | 17,438 | 18,241 | 18,702 | 18,831 | 18,983 |
| of which postpaid | 13,594 | 14,078 | 14,882 | 15,378 | 15,629 | 15,853 |
| Total revenues | 20,886 | 21,132 | 21,957 | 24,334 | 23,107 | 22,791 |
| Core Adjusted EBITDA | 8,258 | 8,541 | 8,680 | 8,445 | 9,240 | 9,537 |
| Operating income | 4,800 | 5,213 | 4,530 | 3,736 | 4,497 | 5,490 |
| Net income | 2,953 | 3,222 | 2,714 | 2,103 | 2,504 | 3,239 |
| Adjusted free cash flow | 4,396 | 4,596 | 4,818 | 4,185 | 4,599 | 4,797 |
In 2021–2023 revenues were roughly flat, and net income was depressed by the costs of the Sprint merger. From 2023 profit rose sharply; according to the Capital Markets Day Update, from 2023 to 2025 service revenues grew 6% a year, Core Adjusted EBITDA 8% a year and adjusted free cash flow 15% a year. Revenue growth accelerated in 2025 and early 2026, but part of it comes from acquisitions (see section 4).
| $ billions | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 12 months to 6/2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenues | 80.1 | 79.6 | 78.6 | 81.4 | 88.3 | 92.2 |
| Net income | 3.02 | 2.59 | 8.32 | 11.34 | 10.99 | 10.56 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.41 | 2.06 | 6.93 | 9.66 | 9.72 | 9.55 |
| Adjusted free cash flow | — | — | — | 17.03 | 18.00 | 18.40 |
On June 30, 2026, financial debt including finance leases and excluding tower obligations was $86.9 billion, and cash was only $2.8 billion. Net debt: $84.1 billion, 2.3x trailing Core Adjusted EBITDA. According to the Capital Markets Day Update, management's target is 2.5x. The effective interest rate in the quarter was 4.3%. The company has an undrawn $10 billion revolving credit facility running to 2031. Beyond financial debt, there are $29.1 billion of operating lease liabilities, mostly cell sites, and a $3.5 billion obligation for towers conveyed to Crown Castle.
Capital return: over the last 12 months the company bought back $12.1 billion of stock and paid $4.3 billion of dividends — together 89% of adjusted free cash flow, and 96% of it after finance-lease repayments. In the first half of 2026 it bought 34.75 million shares at an average price of $203.07, and cash fell from $5.6 billion to $2.8 billion. In July 2026, $8.5 billion remained under the 2026 return program. Shares outstanding fell 4.7% over the year. The quarterly dividend was $1.02; according to stockanalysis, the next dividend, with an ex-date of November 25, 2026, is $1.17.
Three further obligations:
T-Mobile reports a single segment. The meaningful split is between revenue types, and between acquired and internal growth.
| Q2, $ millions | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Postpaid | 14,078 | 15,853 | +12.6% |
| Prepaid | 2,643 | 2,473 | −6.4% |
| Wholesale and other | 717 | 657 | −8.4% |
| Equipment | 3,439 | 3,524 | +2.5% |
| Cost of equipment less equipment revenue | 1,220 | 1,531 | +25.5% |
Acquisitions vs. internal growth. In Q3 2025 the company added 1,448 thousand accounts from the acquisition of UScellular's wireless business and 633 thousand fiber accounts from Metronet and other acquisitions — 2,081 thousand in total, 6.6% of the June 2025 account base. Internal net additions over the 12 months were 1,151 thousand, or 3.65%. The sum reconciles exactly to the 34,700 thousand accounts at June 2026. The company does not disclose average revenue of the acquired accounts, so internal service-revenue growth can only be estimated as a range: about 3.4% to 5.6%, versus 8.9% reported.
Operating metrics. Monthly postpaid account churn rose from 0.92% in Q2 2025 to 1.04% in Q4 and Q1, and eased to 0.99% in Q2 2026. Net additions fell 13% to 277 thousand. Growth in average revenue per account slowed from 3.9% in Q1 to 2.0% in Q2. Since the start of 2026 the company no longer reports postpaid phone churn; the last figure, for Q4 2025, was 1.02%, versus 0.92% a year earlier.
The advantage the company presents rests on three assets: spectrum (licenses carried at $98.2 billion), a network that won awards from Ookla, Opensignal and P3 in the quarter, and a Net Promoter Score of 46, which the release describes as the highest recorded by any of the three large carriers. The company also uses the network for home internet; according to the Capital Markets Day Update, its 2030 target is 15 million fixed-wireless customers and 3 to 4 million fiber customers.
Where the filings show pressure: in the 10-K the company attributed the rise in postpaid phone churn in 2025 primarily to "higher industry switching" and a temporary impact of rate-plan changes. In Q1 2026, industry switching was again listed first. In Q2 the churn increase was attributed to broadband-only accounts, which carry structurally higher churn. At the same time, management cites "increased promotional activity", and the gap between device cost and device revenue widened 25% in the quarter. The competitors named in the filing: AT&T, Verizon, the cable companies Charter and Comcast, EchoStar and others. According to the filing, some "have shown a willingness to use discounted pricing or offer bundled services".
This review does not include competitor data from primary sources.
At T-Mobile, the central question is how much of the growth belongs to the existing business. Service revenues rose 8.9%, but roughly half of that came from acquired accounts. The estimated internal pace, 3.4% to 5.6%, is still high for a mature telecom operator, but far below the headline number. Measuring the company by the reported figure and measuring it by the internal pace produce two different companies.
Q3 is the natural test. The UScellular acquisition closed on August 1, 2025, and Metronet on July 24, 2025. Q3 2025 therefore already contains most of their contribution, and in the year-over-year comparison for Q3 2026 almost all growth will be internal. According to stockanalysis, the report is due on October 28, 2026.
Operating metrics, and what stopped being published. At the start of 2026 the company switched to reporting accounts instead of customers and stopped publishing postpaid phone churn — after a quarter in which that figure rose to 1.02%. Management explains the change as a focus on high-value accounts. In practice, it is now harder to separate wireless churn from home-internet and fiber churn.
Two profit measures moving in opposite directions. Core Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% over 12 months; net income fell 13.5%. Depreciation, interest and joint-venture losses explain part of the gap. Another part is $2.4 billion of "special items". Merger costs are to end by the end of 2027, according to the filing, but "Other, net" — severance, store closures — has been excluded in every quarter since 2024.
Reported cash flow vs. owner cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow of $18.4 billion over 12 months does not deduct finance-lease repayments ($1.3 billion), spectrum purchases ($2.2 billion over the same period) or joint-venture investments. In addition, the company has so far paid far less cash tax than its book tax expense, and that gap is narrowing: first-half payments more than doubled. The difference between the two versions of cash flow is several billion dollars a year.
Near-full capital return. The company returns almost all cash flow after leases to shareholders, and in the first half also drew down cash. Shares bought in that half cost $203 on average; on October 9, 2026 the stock traded at $148.58. According to the filing, for 2026–2027 management plans up to about $30 billion of capital return, plus more than $22 billion for "flexible deployment" — deleveraging, investment or additional returns.
Controlling shareholder. Deutsche Telekom holds 54.3% and received $1.2 billion of the $2.2 billion of dividends paid in the half. A lawsuit filed in Delaware in February 2025 (Palkon) alleges breach of fiduciary duty and unjust enrichment of Deutsche Telekom in connection with the 2022–2024 buyback programs. The company states it cannot predict the outcome.
New management. A CEO since November 2025, a CFO from February 2027, and a new head of the business segment coming from AT&T and Public Storage. This year also saw a workforce restructuring ($531 million of severance to date), network restructuring and store closures.
Historical multiples vs. today's. The P/E at the end of 2023, 2024 and 2025 was between 20.7 and 22.6, and EV/EBITDA between 10.5 and 11.7. On October 9, 2026 they stood at 15.6 and 8.1, with the price about half a percent above its 52-week low. These figures describe the starting point; they do not determine the direction.
This framework is meant to organize the questions. It does not decide and does not take part in the decision — the decision belongs to the reader.
This framework is intended to structure analysis, not to produce an investment conclusion.
| # | Item | Latest reading |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Service revenues vs. Q3 2025 ($18,241 million, a base that already includes the acquisitions) | $18,983 million in Q2 |
| 2 | Postpaid account churn | 0.99% |
| 3 | Growth in average revenue per account | +2.0% |
| 4 | 2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA guidance, and any reference to 2027 targets | $37.1–37.5 billion |
| 5 | Postpaid net account additions | 277 thousand |
| 6 | Bad debt expense | $398 million |
| 7 | Cash taxes, including the 800MHz transaction | $767 million in H1 |
| 8 | Net debt and cash | $84.1 and $2.8 billion |
| 9 | Special items excluded from EBITDA | $401 million in the quarter |
The scenarios below are descriptive, not predictive. They contain no prices, no probabilities, and no ranking of outcomes. Their only purpose is to organize the conditions that would need to be met for each state to materialize, so they can be checked against future filings.
Scenarios are descriptive, not predictive.
The following six questions are identical in every company review we publish. They are deliberately open and do not lead to a single conclusion. Their role is to let the reader examine the company along the same six dimensions as any other company.
1. In the April–June 2026 quarter, T-Mobile reported service revenues of $19.0 billion (+8.9%), Core Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 billion (+11.7%) and net income of $3.2 billion (+0.5%). 2,081 thousand accounts were added through acquisitions in Q3 2025, versus 1,151 thousand internal net additions over 12 months.
2. Monthly postpaid account churn rose from 0.92% to 0.99%, net additions fell 13%, and growth in average revenue per account slowed to 2.0%. Since the start of 2026 the company has not published postpaid phone churn.
3. Over the last 12 months, adjusted free cash flow totaled $18.4 billion and capital returned $16.4 billion. In July, management raised its 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance to $18.4–18.8 billion.
4. Net debt stood at $84.1 billion, 2.3x Core Adjusted EBITDA, and cash fell to $2.8 billion. Deutsche Telekom holds 54.3% of the shares.
Bakshi Finance operates as a Family Office for qualified clients only. Mr. Yaron Bakshi held an investment advisory license from 2008 to 2023. As of the publication date of this document, the company does not hold an investment advisory, investment marketing, or portfolio management license.
This document is intended for research and professional education purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or take any action in securities. It is not a substitute for advice that takes into account each person's individual data and needs. Any decision is the sole responsibility of the investor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data was drawn from official sources: the Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (filed July 23, 2026), the Form 10-Q for Q1 2026, the Form 10-K for 2025 (February 11, 2026), the earnings releases and investor factbooks, the Capital Markets Day Update of February 11, 2026, and the company's Form 8-K filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Historical multiples and dividend data: stockanalysis.com. Filing updates published after this date are not included.
The full analytical review of T-Mobile US (TMUS) for the quarter ended June 2026 is available to Bakshi Finance premium clients.
The review includes a 10-section analysis, "How to Think About This Company", a structured scenario framework, and a 6-dimension Analytical Lens.